{"id":5899,"date":"2024-11-29T17:51:46","date_gmt":"2024-11-29T08:51:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.since2020.jp\/?p=5899"},"modified":"2024-12-06T10:26:17","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T01:26:17","slug":"poke-kasumi-testing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/poke-kasumi-testing\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u30dd\u30b1\u30dd\u30b1\u3011\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u8868\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u78ba\u7387\u306f1\/2\u306a\u306e\u304b\uff1f\uff0d\u305d\u306e2\uff1a\u4eee\u8aac\u691c\u5b9a\uff0d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u30ea\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30dd\u30b1\u30ab\u30a2\u30d7\u30ea\u300c\u30dd\u30b1\u30dd\u30b1\u300d\u306e\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u3067\u300c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u4e0b\u65b9\u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5642\u304c\u805e\u304b\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u672c\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u56de\u6570\u3092\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u300c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c1\/2\u3067\u3042\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3048\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3092\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u691c\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2>\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306b<\/h2>\n<p>\u30dd\u30b1\u30e2\u30f3\u30ab\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u30a2\u30d7\u30ea\u300c<span data-token-index=\"1\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">Pok\u00e9mon Trading Card Game Pocket<\/span>\u300d\uff08\u901a\u79f0<span data-token-index=\"3\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u30dd\u30b1\u30dd\u30b1<\/span>\uff09\u304c\u30ea\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304b\u3089\u7d041\u30ab\u6708\u304c\u7d4c\u904e\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002[blogcard url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.pokemontcgpocket.com\/ja\/&#8221;]<!-- notionvc: a42a7e84-eaa3-4d7e-ace9-750d12a02d75 --><\/p>\r\n<p>\u30ea\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u76f4\u5f8c\u304b\u3089\u731b\u5a01\u3092\u632f\u308b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b<strong>\u30ab\u30b9\u30df<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u300c\u6700\u8fd1\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u8868\u51fa\u306a\u304f\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306a\u300d\u3068\u601d\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u65b9\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\r\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u524d\u56de\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066100\u56de\u5206\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u53ce\u96c6\u3057\u3001\u6700\u5c24\u63a8\u5b9a\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u8868\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u78ba\u7387\\(p\\)\u3092\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u63a8\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6700\u5c24\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u8868\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u306f<strong>47.1%<\/strong>\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u304b\u3089\u3001\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f1\/2\u3088\u308a\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3048\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u3001\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306b\u3088\u308b\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u5185\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u672c\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f<strong>\u300c\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u8868\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u78ba\u7387\u306f1\/2\u3067\u3042\u308b\u300d\u3068\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3092\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u4eee\u8aac\u691c\u5b9a\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u8003\u5bdf\u3057\u307e\u3059<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>\u524d\u56de\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\uff1a[blogcard url=&#8221;https:\/\/blog.since2020.jp\/data_analysis\/poke-kasumi-estimation\/&#8221;]<\/p>\n\n<h2>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf<\/h2>\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\">\u96c6\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/span><br \/>\r\n<\/strong>\u3000\u30fb\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\uff1a\\(N=100\\)<br \/>\r\n\u3000\u30fb\u96c6\u8a08\u671f\u9593\uff1a2024\/11\/21~2024\/11\/24<br \/>\r\n\u3000\u30fb\u96c6\u8a08\u5834\u6240\uff1a\u30aa\u30f3\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u5bfe\u6226<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\">\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u6982\u8981<\/span><\/span><br \/>\r\n<\/strong>\u30aa\u30f3\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u5bfe\u6226\u3067\u53ce\u96c6\u3057\u305f100\u679a\u306e\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u96c6\u8a08\u3055\u308c\u305f\u300c1\u679a\u306e\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u3092\u884c\u3063\u305f\u56de\u6570\u300d\u3092 \\(x_i\\ (i=1,2,&#8230;,N)\\) \u3068\u8868\u3059\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u7372\u5f97\u3057\u305f\u6c34\u30a8\u30cd\u30eb\u30ae\u30fc\u306e\u500b\u6570\\((x_{i}-1)\\)\u306e\u5206\u5e03\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<br \/>\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_table.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1186\" height=\"168\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5872\" srcset=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_table.png 1186w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_table-300x42.png 300w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_table-1024x145.png 1024w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_table-768x109.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1186px) 100vw, 1186px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_dist.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"560\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5871\" srcset=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_dist.png 849w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_dist-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kasumi_dist-768x507.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\">\u6a19\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u8a08\u7b97<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u53ce\u96c6\u3057\u305f100\u56de\u5206\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\\(x_i\\ (i=1,2,&#8230;,N)\\)\u304b\u3089\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u308b\\(X\\)\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u306f$$ \\bar{x}=\\frac{\\sum_{i=1}^{100}x_{i}}{100}=1.89 $$\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2>\u554f\u984c\u8a2d\u5b9a<\/h2>\n<p>\u524d\u56de\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u8a73\u7d30\u306b\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001<span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.since2020.jp\/data_analysis\/poke-kasumi-estimation\/\">\u3053\u3061\u3089<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\">\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a<\/span><br \/>\r\n<\/strong>\u3000\u30fb\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3092\\(p\\)\u3068\u3059\u308b<br \/>\r\n\u3000\u30fb1\u679a\u306e\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u3092\u884c\u3046\u56de\u6570\u3092\\(X\\)\u3068\u3059\u308b<\/p>\r\n<p>\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5404\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u304c<strong><span data-token-index=\"1\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u72ec\u7acb\u306b\u540c\u4e00\u306a\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u5f93\u3046<\/span>\u3053\u3068\u3092\u4eee\u5b9a\u3059\u308b<\/strong>\u3068\u3001\\(X\\)\u306f\u5e7e\u4f55\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u5f93\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<!-- notionvc: 22aca7e3-4ef6-4327-8ca6-309227eb866e --><\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\"><strong>\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u95a2\u6570<br \/>\r\n<\/strong><\/span>1\u679a\u306e\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u3092\u884c\u3046\u56de\u6570\\(X\\)\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8868\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\uff1a<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ P(X=k)=p^{k-1}(1-p) \\qquad (k=1,2,3, \\ldots) $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306e\\((k-1)\\)\u56de\u306e\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u3067\u8868\u3092\u51fa\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u3001\\(k\\)\u56de\u76ee\u3067\u521d\u3081\u3066\u88cf\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u8868\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\r\n\u203b\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u5e7e\u4f55\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u306f\\(p\\), \\(1-p\\)\u304c\u9006\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u6ce8\u610f\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\"><strong>\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u3068\u5206\u6563<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<p>\\(X\\)\u304c\u5f93\u3046\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\\(\\mu\\)\u3068\u5206\u6563\\(\\sigma^2\\)\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u5c0e\u51fa\u65b9\u6cd5\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u672b\u5c3e\u306e\u4ed8\u9332\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ \\begin{align*}<br \/>\r\n\\mu &amp;= \\frac{1}{1-p}\\\\<br \/>\r\n\\sigma^2 &amp;= \\frac{p}{(1-p)^2}<br \/>\r\n\\end{align*} $$<\/p>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 8f73a3f0-fa19-4d96-8a71-cacd9405a4bb --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u4eee\u8aac\u691c\u5b9a<\/h2>\n<p>\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\\( N=100 \\)\u304c\u5341\u5206\u306b\u5927\u304d\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001<strong>\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6975\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f<span data-token-index=\"3\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">Z\u691c\u5b9a<\/span><\/strong>\u3092\u5b9f\u65bd\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: eeffb12b-6d4b-4849-9d8e-de190d9663cc --><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\"><strong>1: \u4eee\u8aac\u3068\u6709\u610f\u6c34\u6e96\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<p>\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u3057\u305f\u3044\u554f\u3044\u306f\u300c\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u306e\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u304c\u8868\u306b\u306a\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f1\/2\u3088\u308a\u3082\u4f4e\u3044\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\uff1f\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5e30\u7121\u4eee\u8aac\u3068\uff08\u5de6\u7247\u5074\uff09\u5bfe\u7acb\u4eee\u8aac\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>\u3000\u30fb\u5e30\u7121\u4eee\u8aac\\(H_0: p=1\/2\\)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>\u3000\u30fb\u5bfe\u7acb\u4eee\u8aac\\(H_1: p&lt;1\/2\\)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001\u6709\u610f\u6c34\u6e96\u306f<span style=\"font-size: 12pt\"><strong>5%<\/strong><\/span>\u306b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\"><strong>2: \u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<p>\u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u3092\u4f5c\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\\(X\\)\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u5e73\u5747\\(\\bar{x}\\)\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\\(N\\)\u304c\u5341\u5206\u306b\u5927\u304d\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3001<strong>\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6975\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u306b\u3088\u308a\\(\\bar{x}\\)\u306f\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u5e7e\u4f55\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u5f93\u3046\u78ba\u7387\u5909\u6570\\(X\\)\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u304c\\(\\mu\\)\u3001\u5206\u6563\u304c\\(\\sigma^2\\)\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3001<strong>\u6a19\u672c\u5e73\u5747\\(\\bar{x}\\)\u306f\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\\(\\mathcal{N}(\\mu, \\sigma^2\/N)\\)\u306b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\\(\\bar{x}\\)\u3092\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u3057\u305f\u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\\(Z\\)\u3092\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ Z=\\frac{\\bar{x}-\\mu}{\\sigma\/\\sqrt{N}} $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\\(Z\\)<strong>\u306f\u6a19\u6e96\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\\(\\mathcal{N}(0,1)\\)\u306b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u306b\u5f93\u3044\u307e\u3059<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\">3: \u68c4\u5374\u57df\u306e\u8a08\u7b97<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u5bfe\u7acb\u4eee\u8aac<strong>\\(H_1: p&lt;1\/2\\)<\/strong>\u3001\u6709\u610f\u6c34\u6e965%\u3067\u3042\u308b\u5de6\u7247\u5074\u691c\u5b9a\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u6a19\u6e96\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u4e0b\u50745%\u70b9\\(-z_{0.05} \\approx-1.645\\)\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5e30\u7121\u4eee\u8aac\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u4e0b\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u308b\u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u306e\u5024\\(z\\)\u304c<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ z &lt; -1.645 $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u5e30\u7121\u4eee\u8aac\u3092\u68c4\u5374\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/norrmal-dist.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"811\" height=\"403\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5927\" srcset=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/norrmal-dist.png 811w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/norrmal-dist-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/norrmal-dist-768x382.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 811px) 100vw, 811px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: fe0dd1ad-aeb2-4abb-bdf3-6eb5b0ab9a5c --><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\"><strong>4: \u5e30\u7121\u4eee\u8aac\\(H_0\\)\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u3092\u8a08\u7b97<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<p>\u5e30\u7121\u4eee\u8aac\\(H_0:p=1\/2\\)\u306e\u3082\u3068\u3067\u306e\u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\\(Z_0\\)\u306f<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ Z_0=\\frac{\\bar{x}-\\mu_0}{\\sigma_0\/\\sqrt{N}} $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3068\u8868\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u306a\u304a\u3001\\(\\mu = 1\/(1-p),\\ \\sigma^2 = p\/(1-p)^2\\)\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ \\begin{align*} \\mu_0=\\frac{1}{1-1\/2}=2,\\ \\sigma_0=\\frac{\\sqrt{1\/2}}{1-1\/2}=\\sqrt{2} \\end{align*} $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u691c\u5b9a\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\\(Z_0\\)\u306b<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ \\mu_0=2, \\sigma_0=\\sqrt{2}, \\bar{x}=1.89, N=100 $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3092\u4ee3\u5165\u3057\u3066\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u5024\\(z\\)\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ \\begin{align*} z =\\frac{1.89-2}{\\sqrt{2}\/\\sqrt{100}} \\approx-0.7778 \\end{align*} $$<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;font-size: 14pt\"><strong>5: \u68c4\u5374\u306e\u53ef\u5426\u3092\u5224\u65ad<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<p>\\(z &gt; -1.645\\)\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001<strong>\u5e30\u7121\u4eee\u8aac\\(H_0: p=1\/2\\)\u306f\u68c4\u5374\u3055\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\u3001<strong>\u4eca\u56de\u53ce\u96c6\u3057\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u306f\u300c\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u306e\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u3067\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f1\/2\u3088\u308a\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u306b\u4f4e\u3044\u300d\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3067\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 9364660a-fa2e-4f49-b2bc-10be189487ec --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/h2>\n<p>\u672c\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u306e\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u304c\u5e7e\u4f55\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u78ba\u7387\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u8868\u73fe\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3001<strong>\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u4eee\u8aac\u691c\u5b9a\uff08\u7279\u306b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6975\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305fZ\u691c\u5b9a\uff09\u3092\u884c\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u4eca\u56de\u96c6\u3081\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u306f\u3001<strong>\u300c\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u306e\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u3067\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f1\/2\u3088\u308a\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u306b\u4f4e\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306f\u793a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089\u306f\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u611f\u60f3\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u53ce\u96c6\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u300c\u88cf\u3070\u304b\u308a\u51fa\u308b\u304b\u3089\u7d76\u5bfe1\/2\u3088\u308a\u4f4e\u304f\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306a\u300d\u3068\u611f\u3058\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306e\u3001\u88cf\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u5834\u9762\u304c\u8a18\u61b6\u306b\u6b8b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u3051\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001<strong>\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u30aa\u30f3\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u5bfe\u6226\u3067\u3082\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u3067\u8868\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u78ba\u7387\u306f1\/2\u306b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u306a<\/strong>\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\\(N=100\\)\u304c\u5341\u5206\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u61f8\u5ff5\u304c\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u305f\u624b\u9806\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u66f4\u306b\u591a\u304f\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u4eee\u8aac\u691c\u5b9a\u3092\u5b9f\u65bd\u3067\u304d\u308c\u3070\u3001\u3088\u308a\u4fe1\u983c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: df02107e-72b8-41a8-be72-4687c5ac48d8 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u4ed8\u9332<\/h2>\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">1\u679a\u306e\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u304c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30b9\u3092\u884c\u3046\u56de\u6570\\(X\\)\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\\(\\mu\\)\u3068\u5206\u6563\\(\\sigma^2\\)\u306e\u5c0e\u51fa<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u671f\u5f85\u5024\\(\\mu\\)\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ \\begin{split} \\mu &amp;= E[X]\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot P(X=k)\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot p^{k-1}(1-p)\\\\ &amp;= (1-p) \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot p^{k-1}\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot p^{k-1} &#8211; p \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot p^{k-1}\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot p^{k-1} &#8211; \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot p^{k}\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} p^{k-1}\\\\ &amp;= \\frac{1}{1-p} \\end{split} $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u5206\u6563\\(\\sigma^2\\)\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\\(X^2\\)\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ \\begin{split} E[X^2] &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k^2 \\cdot P(X=k)\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k^2 \\cdot p^{k-1}(1-p)\\\\ &amp;= (1-p) \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k^2 \\cdot p^{k-1}\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k^2 \\cdot p^{k-1} &#8211; p \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k^2 \\cdot p^{k-1}\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k^2 \\cdot p^{k-1} &#8211; \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k^2 \\cdot p^{k}\\\\ &amp;= \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} (2k-1)p^{k-1}\\\\ &amp;= 2 \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} k \\cdot p^{k-1} &#8211; \\sum_{k=1}^{\\infty} p^{k-1}\\\\ &amp;= \\frac{2}{(1-p)^2} &#8211; \\frac{1}{1-p}\\\\ &amp;=\\frac{1+p}{(1-p)^2} \\end{split} $$<\/p>\r\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u304b\u3089\u3001\u5206\u6563\\(\\sigma^2\\)\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>$$ \\begin{split} \\sigma^2 &amp;= E[X^2] &#8211; E[X]^2\\\\ &amp;= \\frac{1+p}{(1-p)^2} &#8211; \\bigg\\{ \\frac{1}{1-p} \\bigg\\}^2\\\\ &amp;= \\frac{p}{(1-p)^2} \\end{split} $$<\/p>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 96e00f73-748d-482a-b2da-9eae47679ea7 --><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u30ea\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30dd\u30b1\u30ab\u30a2\u30d7\u30ea\u300c\u30dd\u30b1\u30dd\u30b1\u300d\u306e\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u3067\u300c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u4e0b\u65b9\u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5642\u304c\u805e\u304b\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u672c\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u30ab\u30b9\u30df\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u56de\u6570\u3092\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u300c\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c1\/2\u3067 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":5928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","swell_btn_cv_data":"","footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[1246],"tags":[39,801,57],"class_list":["post-5899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-data-infrastructure","tag-39","tag-801","tag-57"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5899","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5899"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5899\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5928"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5899"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}