{"id":7673,"date":"2026-02-20T10:26:05","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T01:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.since2020.jp\/?p=7673"},"modified":"2026-02-20T10:26:05","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T01:26:05","slug":"coupon_offline_evaluation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/coupon_offline_evaluation\/","title":{"rendered":"\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u65bd\u7b56\u306e\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u65bd\u7b56\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\uff1dA\/B\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5e38\u8b58\u306f\u5909\u308f\u308a\u3064\u3064\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30d3\u30b8\u30cd\u30b9\u30b9\u30d4\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u52a0\u901f\u3059\u308b\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30ed\u30b0\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3060\u3051\u3067\u65b0\u65bd\u7b56\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u3092\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3059\u308b\u300c\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\uff08OPE\uff09\u300d\u304c\u6ce8\u76ee\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30b3\u30b9\u30c8\u3068\u6642\u9593\u3092\u524a\u6e1b\u3057\u3064\u3064\u52b9\u679c\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308bOPE\u306e\u4ed5\u7d44\u307f\u3068\u3001\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a3\u3064\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u5206\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2>\u306a\u305c\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\uff08OPE\uff09\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>A\/B\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u306f\u78ba\u304b\u306b\u78ba\u5b9f\u306a\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u52d9\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e3\u3064\u306e\u5927\u304d\u306a\u300c\u75db\u307f\u300d\u3092\u4f34\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"1\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u591a\u5927\u306a\u30b3\u30b9\u30c8\u3068\u30ea\u30b9\u30af:<\/span> \u5931\u6557\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u672a\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u30ed\u30b8\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u3092\u30d0\u30e9\u6492\u3044\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u301c\u6570\u5104\u5186\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u640d\u5931\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u5371\u967a\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"3\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u751a\u5927\u306a\u6a5f\u4f1a\u640d\u5931:<\/span> \u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u671f\u9593\u4e2d\uff08\u4f8b\u3048\u30702\u9031\u9593\uff09\u3001\u4e00\u90e8\u306e\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306b\u306f\u300c\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u8584\u3044\u300d\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u300c\u9006\u52b9\u679c\u306a\u300d\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u3092\u51fa\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"5\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u6642\u9593\u306e\u6d6a\u8cbb:<\/span> \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u6539\u5584\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3073\u306b\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u6570\u9031\u9593\u5f85\u3063\u3066\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u9ad8\u901f\u306aPDCA\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u3092\u56de\u3059\u3053\u3068\u306f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><span data-token-index=\"7\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u6700\u5927\u306e\u4fa1\u5024<\/span>\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u75db\u307f\u3092\u30bc\u30ed\u306b\u3067\u304d\u308b\u70b9\u306b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u64ec\u4f3c\u7684\u306b\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u884c\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u300c\u30b3\u30b9\u30c80\u5186\u300d\u300c\u5f85\u3061\u6642\u95930\u79d2\u300d\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u826f\u3057\u60aa\u3057\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\u3067\u300c\u52dd\u3066\u308b\u898b\u8fbc\u307f\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u300d\u3068\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3060\u3051\u3092\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306aA\/B\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u306b\u56de\u3059\u306e\u304c\u30e2\u30c0\u30f3\u306a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30b5\u30a4\u30a8\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u9244\u5247\u3067\u3059\u3002<!-- notionvc: ea27bcf9-c9ae-4fa8-bb69-034b5bb8f7fb --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u6838\u5fc3\u3068\u306a\u308b\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a\u300c\u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\uff08Counterfactual\uff09\u300d<\/h2>\n<p>\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u4e0a\u3067\u907f\u3051\u3066\u901a\u308c\u306a\u3044\u6700\u5927\u306e\u96e3\u95a2\u304c\u300c\u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\uff08Counterfactual\uff09\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6982\u5ff5\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u306f\u3001\u300c\u305d\u306e\u6642\u306b\u884c\u308f\u308c\u305f\u30a2\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u300d\u3057\u304b\u8a18\u9332\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"1\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u4e8b\u5b9f\uff08Fact\uff09:<\/span> \u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fcA\u3055\u3093\u306b\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u3092\u914d\u3063\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u3092\u8cfc\u5165\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"3\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\uff08Counterfactual\uff09:<\/span> \u3082\u3057\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fcA\u3055\u3093\u306b\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u3092\u914d\u3089\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3089\u3001\u8cb7\u308f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\r\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3068\u3082\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u304c\u306a\u304f\u3066\u3082\u8cb7\u3063\u305f\u306e\u304b\uff1f \u3053\u306e\u300c\u89b3\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u30d1\u30e9\u30ec\u30eb\u30ef\u30fc\u30eb\u30c9\u306e\u672a\u6765\u300d\u3092\u6570\u7406\u7684\u306b\u63a8\u5b9a\u3057\u3001\u57cb\u3081\u5408\u308f\u305b\u308b\u6280\u8853\u3053\u305d\u304c\u3001\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u6b63\u4f53\u3067\u3059\u3002<!-- notionvc: 76657918-7127-43cd-a60a-0fa3162652c0 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u5b9f\u52d9\u3067\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b3\u3064\u306e\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u624b\u6cd5<\/h2>\n<p>\u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3057\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u65bd\u7b56\uff08\u30dd\u30ea\u30b7\u30fc\uff09\u306e\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u5927\u304d\u304f3\u3064\u306b\u5206\u985e\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u2460 Direct Method (DM\u6cd5)<\/b>\r\n<p>\u300c\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u3042\u308a\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u300d\u3068\u300c\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u306a\u3057\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u300d\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u6a5f\u68b0\u5b66\u7fd2\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\u5668\uff09\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3057\u3001\u5168\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u63a8\u8ad6\u3055\u305b\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u30e1\u30ea\u30c3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u5206\u6563\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u3001\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u8a55\u4fa1\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u30c7\u30e1\u30ea\u30c3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u81ea\u4f53\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306b\u5f37\u304f\u4f9d\u5b58\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u9593\u9055\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u8a55\u4fa1\u7d50\u679c\u3082\u5927\u304d\u304f\u30ba\u30ec\u308b\uff08\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\uff09\u5371\u967a\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<b>\u2461 Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW\u6cd5 \/ \u50be\u5411\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u91cd\u307f\u4ed8\u3051)<\/b>\r\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u300c\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u3092\u8cb0\u3044\u3084\u3059\u3044\u4eba\u3078\u306e\u504f\u308a\uff08\u30bb\u30ec\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\uff09\u300d\u3092\u3001\u50be\u5411\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\uff08Propensity Score\uff09\u306e\u9006\u6570\u3067\u91cd\u307f\u4ed8\u3051\u3057\u3066\u6253\u3061\u6d88\u3059\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001\u300c\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u3092\u8cb0\u3046\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u6975\u3081\u3066\u4f4e\u3044\u306e\u306b\u3001\u305f\u307e\u305f\u307e\u8cb0\u3063\u305f\u4eba\u300d\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5927\u304d\u304f\u91cd\u307f\u4ed8\u3051\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u3042\u305f\u304b\u3082\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u306b\u5b9f\u9a13\uff08RCT\uff09\u3057\u305f\u304b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u72b6\u614b\u3092\u64ec\u4f3c\u7684\u306b\u4f5c\u308a\u51fa\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u6570\u5f0f\u3067\u8868\u3059\u3068\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u65bd\u7b56\\(\\pi\\)\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u3055\u308c\u308b\u4fa1\u5024\\(\\hat{V}_{IPW}\\)\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\\[ \\hat{V}_{IPW} = \\frac{1}{N} \\sum_{i=1}^{N} \\frac{\\mathbb{I}(a_i = \\pi(x_i))}{p_t(a_i | x_i)} y_i \\]<\/p>\r\n<p>\uff08\u203b \\(a_i\\) \u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30a2\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3001\\(\\pi(x_i)\\) \u306f\u65b0\u30ed\u30b8\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u30a2\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3001\\(p_t\\) \u306f\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u50be\u5411\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u3001\\(y_i\\) \u306f\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u58f2\u4e0a\u306a\u3069\u306e\u5831\u916c\uff09<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u30e1\u30ea\u30c3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u50be\u5411\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306e\u306a\u3044\u516c\u5e73\u306a\u8a55\u4fa1\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u30c7\u30e1\u30ea\u30c3\u30c8<\/strong>: \u50be\u5411\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u304c\u6975\u7aef\u306b\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5206\u6bcd\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u91cd\u307f\u304c\u7206\u767a\u3057\u3001\u8a55\u4fa1\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u6975\u3081\u3066\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<b>\u2462 Doubly Robust (DR\u6cd5)<\/b>\r\n<p>\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u300cDM\u6cd5\u300d\u3068\u300cIPW\u6cd5\u300d\u306e\u9577\u6240\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f\u6700\u5f37\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u7279\u5fb4<\/strong>: \u300cDM\u6cd5\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u304b\u300cIPW\u6cd5\u306b\u3088\u308b\u50be\u5411\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u300d\u306e\u3069\u3061\u3089\u304b\u7247\u65b9\u3067\u3082\u6b63\u3057\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u8a55\u4fa1\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\uff08\u4e8c\u91cd\u306b\u9811\u5065\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff09\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f37\u529b\u306a\u7279\u6027\u3092\u6301\u3061\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u5b9f\u52d9\u3067\u306e\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4ed8\u3051<\/strong>: \u305d\u306e\u5b89\u5b9a\u6027\u3068\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3055\u304b\u3089\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30b5\u30a4\u30a8\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u6700\u524d\u7dda\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306eDR\u6cd5\u304c\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u306a\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u63a1\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u304c\u5897\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\n\n<h2>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u3068\u53ef\u8996\u5316\uff1aQini Curve\uff08Uplift Curve\uff09<\/h2>\n<p>\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u30aa\u30d5\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u300c\u30d3\u30b8\u30cd\u30b9\u306e\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u300d\u306b\u7e4b\u3052\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u76f4\u611f\u7684\u306a\u53ef\u8996\u5316\u304c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6b20\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u6d3b\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304c\u300cQini Curve\uff08\u307e\u305f\u306fUplift Curve\uff09\u300d\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"1\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u6a2a\u8ef8:<\/span> \u30bf\u30fc\u30b2\u30c3\u30c8\u5bfe\u8c61\u3068\u306a\u308b\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306e\u5272\u5408\uff08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u9806\u306b\u4e26\u3079\u308b\uff09<\/p>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"3\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u7e26\u8ef8:<\/span> \u7d2f\u7a4d\u306e\u5897\u5206\u52b9\u679c\uff08Uplift\uff1a\u30af\u30fc\u30dd\u30f3\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7d14\u7c8b\u306b\u5897\u3048\u305f\u58f2\u4e0a\u3084CV\u6570\uff09<\/p>\r\n<b><span data-token-index=\"5\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\"><strong>\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u306e\u8aad\u307f\u65b9\u3068\u30a4\u30f3\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8<\/strong><\/span><\/b>\r\n<p>\u2022 <span data-token-index=\"7\" class=\"notion-enable-hover\">\u53f3\u80a9\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u306e\u66f2\u7dda:<\/span> 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