{"id":7794,"date":"2026-03-27T16:14:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T07:14:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.since2020.jp\/?p=7794"},"modified":"2026-03-27T16:14:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T07:14:42","slug":"dataiku-time-series-forecasting-metrics-explained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/dataiku-time-series-forecasting-metrics-explained\/","title":{"rendered":"Dataiku\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u8a73\u7d30\u89e3\u8aac"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dataiku\u3067\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u7d50\u679c\u753b\u9762\u306bMASE\u30fbMAPE\u30fbsMAPE\u30fbMAE\u30fbMSE\u30fbRMSE\u30fbMAQL\u30fbMWQL\u30fbMSIS\u30fbND\u3068\u3044\u304610\u500b\u306e\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u304c\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u3059\u3079\u3066\u3092\u300c\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\u4f55\u304b\u300d\u300c\u3069\u3046\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b\u300d\u300c\u3069\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u3046\u3079\u304d\u304b\u300d\u300c\u6ce8\u610f\u70b9\u306f\u4f55\u304b\u300d\u306e4\u3064\u306e\u89b3\u70b9\u3067\u3001\u56f3\u89e3\u3064\u304d\u3067\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2>\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306b\uff1a\u6b63\u76f4\u3001\u5168\u90e8\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u308b\u4eba\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304b\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>Dataiku\u3067\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f5c\u308a\u3001\u3044\u3056\u7d50\u679c\u753b\u9762\u3092\u958b\u304f\u3068\u2026\u2026<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>MASE\u3001MAPE\u3001sMAPE\u3001MAE\u3001MSE\u3001RMSE\u3001MAQL\u3001MWQL\u3001MSIS\u3001ND<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u30ba\u30e9\u30c3\u3068\u4e26\u3076\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u306e\u5c71\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u300cMAE\u3068RMSE\u306f\u306a\u3093\u3068\u306a\u304f\u308f\u304b\u308b\u3051\u3069\u3001MASE\u3063\u3066\u4f55\uff1f\u300d \u300cMWQL\u3068MAQL\u3063\u3066\u4f55\u304c\u9055\u3046\u306e\uff1f\u300d \u300cMSIS\u306b\u81f3\u3063\u3066\u306f\u521d\u3081\u3066\u898b\u305f\u2026\u2026\u300d<\/p>\r\n<p>\u305d\u3046\u601d\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u304d\u3063\u3068\u79c1\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>Dataiku\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5f37\u529b\u306aAutoML\u30d7\u30e9\u30c3\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u3067\u3001\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\u3082Visual ML\u304b\u3089\u6570\u30af\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u69cb\u7bc9\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u826f\u3057\u60aa\u3057\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e<strong>\u8a55\u4fa1\u6307\u6a19\uff08\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\uff09\u306e\u610f\u5473<\/strong>\u304c\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9078\u3076\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u5b9f\u969b\u3001Dataiku\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u304c\u4e00\u89a7\u8868\u3067\u63b2\u8f09\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5404\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u300c\u76f4\u611f\u7684\u306a\u610f\u5473\u300d\u3084\u300c\u3069\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u3046\u3079\u304d\u304b\u300d\u307e\u3067\u306f\u8a73\u3057\u304f\u8aac\u660e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001Dataiku\u306e\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\uff08Time Series Forecasting\uff09\u3067\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u308b<strong>10\u500b\u306e\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u3059\u3079\u3066<\/strong>\u3092\u3001\u6570\u5f0f\u304c\u82e6\u624b\u306a\u65b9\u3067\u3082\u308f\u304b\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u6bd4\u55a9\u3084\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b\u3092\u4ea4\u3048\u3066\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<blockquote>\r\n<p><strong>\u5bfe\u8c61\u8aad\u8005<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>Dataiku\u3067\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u59cb\u3081\u305f\u3070\u304b\u308a\u306e\u65b9<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u8a55\u4fa1\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3092\u306a\u3093\u3068\u306a\u304f\u30b9\u30eb\u30fc\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u65b9<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u4e0a\u53f8\u3084\u95a2\u4fc2\u8005\u306b\u300c\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3063\u3066\u826f\u3044\u306e\uff1f\u300d\u3068\u805e\u304b\u308c\u3066\u56f0\u3063\u305f\u7d4c\u9a13\u304c\u3042\u308b\u65b9<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 473fcb9e-397d-43e7-b81e-64a67e51300a --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u305d\u3082\u305d\u3082\u300c\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u300d\u3068\u306f\u4f55\u304b<\/h2>\n<p>\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u3068\u306f\u3001\u300c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5b9f\u7e3e\u304b\u3089\u30ba\u30ec\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3092\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u306b\u6e2c\u308b\u7269\u5dee\u3057\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>Dataiku\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u8a13\u7df4\u5f8c\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u753b\u9762\uff08Model Report\uff09\u306e\u300cPerformance: Metrics\u300d\u30bb\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u5404\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u8907\u6570\u306e\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u5168\u7cfb\u5217\u306e\u96c6\u7d04\u5024\u304c\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3001K-Fold cross-test\u3092\u6709\u52b9\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u5404fold\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u306e\u306f\u3001<strong>\u300c\u4e07\u80fd\u306a\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u306f\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u306a\u3044<\/strong>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u696d\u52d9\u8981\u4ef6\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u9069\u5207\u306a\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u9078\u3076\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u5b9f\u52d9\u3067\u306f\u8907\u6570\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3066\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u3067\u306f\u30011\u3064\u305a\u3064\u898b\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 651d0feb-f3a9-47c9-9f18-34bcea3e6b82 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>1. MASE\uff08Mean Absolute Scaled Error\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> \u300c\u524d\u56de\u306e\u5024\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u4f7f\u3046\u3060\u3051\u300d\u306e\u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u6bd4\u3079\u3066\u3001\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u512a\u79c0\u304b\u3092\u6e2c\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3069\u3046\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u306e\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u300c\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee \u00f7 \u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u300d\u3067\u3059\u3002\u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u306f\u300c\u524d\u306e\u6642\u70b9\u306e\u5024\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u6b21\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u4f7f\u3046\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6700\u3082\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306a\u65b9\u6cd5\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u300c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306eMAE \u00f7 \u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u306eMAE\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6bd4\u7387\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u8aad\u307f\u65b9<\/b>\r\n<p>MASE\u304c1\u3088\u308a\u5c0f\u3055\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u4e88\u6e2c\u3088\u308a\u512a\u79c0\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3067\u5408\u683c\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u3067\u3059\u3002MASE\u304c\u3061\u3087\u3046\u30691\u306a\u3089\u3001\u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u540c\u3058\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3057\u304b\u51fa\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f5c\u3063\u305f\u610f\u5473\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066MASE\u304c1\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3089\u3001\u524d\u56de\u5024\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u4f7f\u3046\u3060\u3051\u306e\u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u3059\u3089\u8ca0\u3051\u3066\u3044\u308b\u72b6\u614b\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u898b\u76f4\u3057\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u306a\u305c\u4fbf\u5229\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>MASE\u306e\u6700\u5927\u306e\u5f37\u307f\u306f<strong>\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\uff08\u5358\u4f4d\uff09\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u306a\u3044<\/strong>\u3053\u3068\u3002\u58f2\u4e0a\uff08\u4e07\u5186\u5358\u4f4d\uff09\u3068\u6c17\u6e29\uff08\u2103\u5358\u4f4d\uff09\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5168\u304f\u7570\u306a\u308b\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u306e\u7cfb\u5217\u3067\u3082\u3001MASE\u306a\u3089\u516c\u5e73\u306b\u6bd4\u8f03\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>Dataiku\u3067\u3082\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u91cf\u91cd\u8981\u5ea6\uff08Permutation Feature Importance\uff09\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u306bMASE\u304c\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001Dataiku\u304c\u300c\u57fa\u6e96\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u91cd\u8996\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3046\u304b\u304c\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u8907\u6570\u306e\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u304c\u7570\u306a\u308b\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u3092\u6a2a\u4e26\u3073\u3067\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u300c\u305d\u3082\u305d\u3082\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3001\u4f5c\u308b\u610f\u5473\u3042\u3063\u305f\uff1f\u300d\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 70f02505-4521-44c4-9ff6-b28ecba12653 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>2. MAPE\uff08Mean Absolute Percentage Error\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> \u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u300c\u4f55\u30d1\u30fc\u30bb\u30f3\u30c8\u30ba\u30ec\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3067\u8868\u3059\u3001\u6700\u3082\u76f4\u611f\u7684\u306a\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3069\u3046\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u306e\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>\u5404\u6642\u70b9\u306e\u300c|\u5b9f\u7e3e \u2212 \u4e88\u6e2c| \u00f7 |\u5b9f\u7e3e|\u300d\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u5e73\u5747\u3057\u3066100\u3092\u304b\u3051\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong> \u5b9f\u7e3e100\u500b\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c90\u500b \u2192 |100\u221290| \u00f7 100 = 10% \u2192 \u300c10%\u5916\u3057\u305f\u300d<\/p>\r\n<b>\u26a0\ufe0f \u6700\u5927\u306e\u6ce8\u610f\u70b9\uff1a\u30bc\u30ed\u5272\u308a\u554f\u984c<\/b>\r\n<p><strong>\u5b9f\u7e3e\u5024\u304c0\u306e\u3068\u304d\u30010\u3067\u5272\u308a\u7b97\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0d\u80fd\uff08undefined\uff09\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u306fDataiku\u306e\u8a13\u7df4\u7d50\u679c\u753b\u9762\u3067\u3082\u8b66\u544a\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u300cMAPE\u304c\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8b66\u544a\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u3089\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b0\u304c\u591a\u304f\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u58f2\u308c\u306a\u3044\u65e5\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5546\u54c1\u306e\u65e5\u6b21\u8ca9\u58f2\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306a\u3069\u306f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u306b\u3053\u306e\u554f\u984c\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u5b9f\u7e3e\u5024\u304c0\u306b\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u6bce\u65e5\u5fc5\u305a\u58f2\u308c\u308b\u5546\u54c1\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u306a\u3069\uff09<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u3067\u4f55%\u30ba\u30ec\u308b\u304b\u300d\u3092\u7d4c\u55b6\u5c64\u306b\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u4f1d\u3048\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u306f\u907f\u3051\u3088\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u9593\u6b20\u9700\u8981\uff08\u58f2\u4e0a0\u304c\u983b\u7e41\u306b\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\uff09\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf \u2192 MASE\u3084MAE\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3053\u3068<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: ecea7084-c41b-4fd4-8b64-f128a79e251a --><\/p>\n\n<h2>3. Symmetric MAPE\uff08sMAPE\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> MAPE\u306e\u6539\u826f\u7248\u3002\u904e\u5927\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u904e\u5c0f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u540c\u3058\u91cd\u307f\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>MAPE\u306e\u4f55\u304c\u554f\u984c\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>MAPE\u306f\u5206\u6bcd\u304c\u300c\u5b9f\u7e3e\u5024\u3060\u3051\u300d\u306e\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5b9f\u7e3e\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u3068\u304d\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u7570\u5e38\u306b\u5927\u304d\u304f\u898b\u3048\u308b\u504f\u308a\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u5b9f\u7e3e10\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c20\u3060\u3068MAPE\u306f100%\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u7e3e20\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c10\u3067\u3082MAPE\u306f50%\u3002\u540c\u305810\u306e\u30ba\u30ec\u306a\u306e\u306b\u8a55\u4fa1\u304c\u5909\u308f\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>sMAPE\u306f\u5206\u6bcd\u3092\u300c(|\u5b9f\u7e3e| + |\u4e88\u6e2c|) \u306e\u5e73\u5747\u300d\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u975e\u5bfe\u79f0\u6027\u3092\u7de9\u548c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5929\u79e4\u3067\u4f8b\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001MAPE\u306f\u7247\u5074\u3060\u3051\u306b\u91cd\u308a\u3092\u8f09\u305b\u305f\u50be\u3044\u305f\u5929\u79e4\u3001sMAPE\u306f\u4e21\u5074\u306b\u91cd\u308a\u3092\u8f09\u305b\u305f\u6c34\u5e73\u306a\u5929\u79e4\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u5b9f\u7e3e\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u4e21\u65b90\u306e\u3068\u304d\u306f\u4f9d\u7136\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0d\u80fd\u306b\u306a\u308b\u70b9\u306f\u6ce8\u610f\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>MAPE\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u305f\u3044\u304c\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u4e0a\u306b\u3082\u4e0b\u306b\u3082\u30d6\u30ec\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u516c\u5e73\u306b\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 3083327e-1da9-4fde-9a4f-2d18fd2ef73a --><\/p>\n\n<h2>4. MAE\uff08Mean Absolute Error\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> \u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u7d76\u5bfe\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u3067\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5916\u3059\u304b\u300d\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u8868\u3059\u6700\u3082\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306a\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3069\u3046\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u306e\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>\u5404\u6642\u70b9\u306e\u300c|\u5b9f\u7e3e \u2212 \u4e88\u6e2c|\u300d\u3092\u5408\u8a08\u3057\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u70b9\u6570\u3067\u5272\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong> 4\u65e5\u9593\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c3, 5, 2, 4\u500b\u3060\u3063\u305f\u5834\u5408 \u2192 MAE = (3+5+2+4) \u00f7 4 = <strong>3.5\u500b<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u6b63\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u3082\u8ca0\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u3082\u7d76\u5bfe\u5024\u306b\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u6253\u3061\u6d88\u3057\u5408\u308f\u305a\u3001\u7d14\u7c8b\u306a\u30ba\u30ec\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u3060\u3051\u304c\u6b8b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u306a\u305c\u4fbf\u5229\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u5358\u4f4d\u304c\u5143\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3068\u540c\u3058<\/strong>\uff08\u500b\u3001\u5186\u3001\u2103\u2026\uff09\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u696d\u52d9\u62c5\u5f53\u8005\u306b\u3082\u76f4\u611f\u7684\u306b\u4f1d\u308f\u308b<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u300c\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u306750\u500b\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5916\u3059\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u81ea\u7136\u8a00\u8a9e\u3067\u8aac\u660e\u3067\u304d\u308b<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u5916\u308c\u5024\uff08\u5927\u5916\u3057\uff09\u306b\u5f15\u3063\u5f35\u3089\u308c\u306b\u304f\u3044<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u3084\u30c0\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30dc\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u306a\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u300d\u3092\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u4f1d\u3048\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u5916\u308c\u5024\u306b\u904e\u654f\u306b\u53cd\u5fdc\u3057\u3066\u307b\u3057\u304f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: f76594f0-ec1f-41e2-a561-5290db161677 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>5. MSE\uff08Mean Squared Error\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> \u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u4e8c\u4e57\u3057\u3066\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5916\u3057\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u307b\u3069\u53b3\u3057\u304f\u7f70\u3059\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u306a\u305c\u300c\u4e8c\u4e57\u300d\u3059\u308b\u306e\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>\u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u4e8c\u4e57\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u5927\u304d\u306a\u30ba\u30ec\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u30da\u30ca\u30eb\u30c6\u30a3\u304c\u6025\u6fc0\u306b\u5897\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c2\u306a\u3089\u4e8c\u4e57\u5f8c\u306f4\u3001\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c5\u306a\u308925\u3001\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c10\u306a\u3089100\u3002\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c2\u219210\uff085\u500d\uff09\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3001\u30da\u30ca\u30eb\u30c6\u30a3\u306f4\u2192100\uff08<strong>25\u500d<\/strong>\uff09\u306b\u8df3\u306d\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u300c\u305f\u307e\u306b\u5927\u5916\u3057\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u53b3\u3057\u3044\u8a55\u4fa1\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>\u3010\u56f3\u89e3\uff1a\u5c0f\u30fb\u4e2d\u30fb\u5927\u306e\u30ba\u30ec\u3067\u30da\u30ca\u30eb\u30c6\u30a3\u30d0\u30fc\u304c\u6025\u62e1\u5927\u3059\u308b\u56f3\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3011<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c2\u219210\uff085\u500d\uff09\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3001\u30da\u30ca\u30eb\u30c6\u30a3\u306f4\u2192100\uff08<strong>25\u500d<\/strong>\uff09\u306b\u8df3\u306d\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u300c\u305f\u307e\u306b\u5927\u5916\u3057\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u53b3\u3057\u3044\u8a55\u4fa1\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u6ce8\u610f\u70b9<\/b>\r\n<p>\u5358\u4f4d\u304c\u300c\u5143\u306e\u5358\u4f4d\u306e\u4e8c\u4e57\u300d\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\uff08\u4f8b\uff1a\u500b\u00b2\u3001\u5186\u00b2\uff09\u3002\u76f4\u611f\u7684\u306b\u8aad\u307f\u306b\u304f\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001RMSE\u3068\u4f75\u7528\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u6b20\u54c1\u3084\u904e\u5270\u5728\u5eab\u306a\u3069\u300c\u305f\u307e\u306e\u5927\u5916\u3057\u300d\u304c\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u306a\u696d\u52d9\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9078\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u6a5f\u68b0\u5b66\u7fd2\u306e\u6700\u9069\u5316\u306e\u640d\u5931\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u306b\u5229\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 2dbd368b-1867-4316-9859-cc1f8fd493d9 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>6. RMSE\uff08Root Mean Squared Error\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> MSE\u306e\u5e73\u65b9\u6839\u3002\u5927\u5916\u3057\u3092\u7f70\u3059\u308b\u6027\u8cea\u3092\u6301\u3061\u3064\u3064\u3001\u5143\u306e\u5358\u4f4d\u3067\u8aad\u3081\u308b\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>MSE\u3068\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2<\/b>\r\n<p>RMSE = \u221aMSE \u3067\u3059\u3002MSE = 900\u306a\u3089 RMSE = 30\u3002\u5358\u4f4d\u304c\u300c\u500b\u00b2\u300d\u304b\u3089\u300c\u500b\u300d\u306b\u623b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001MSE\u306e\u300c\u5358\u4f4d\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u306b\u304f\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f31\u70b9\u3092\u221a\uff08\u30eb\u30fc\u30c8\uff09\u3092\u304b\u3051\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u89e3\u6c7a\u3057\u305f\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5927\u304d\u306a\u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u91cd\u304f\u7f70\u3059\u308b\u6027\u8cea\u306fMSE\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>MAE\u3068\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u5206\u3051<\/b>\r\n<p>MAE\u3068RMSE\u3092\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3067\u898b\u308b\u3068\u9762\u767d\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li><strong>RMSE \u2252 MAE<\/strong> \u2192 \u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5747\u4e00\uff08\u5916\u308c\u5024\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u3044\uff09<\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>RMSE \u226b MAE<\/strong> \u2192 \u4e00\u90e8\u306b\u5927\u304d\u306a\u5916\u308c\u5024\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u306f\u5e38\u306b RMSE \u2267 MAE \u304c\u6210\u308a\u7acb\u3061\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7b49\u53f7\u304c\u6210\u308a\u7acb\u3064\u306e\u306f\u300c\u5168\u3066\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u540c\u3058\u5927\u304d\u3055\u300d\u306e\u3068\u304d\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3059\u3002\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u3064\u304d\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u307b\u3069\u4e21\u8005\u306e\u5dee\u304c\u958b\u304f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5dee\u304c\u300c\u5916\u308c\u5024\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u5ea6\u300d\u306e\u30d0\u30ed\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>MSE\u3068\u540c\u3058\u300c\u5927\u5916\u3057\u306b\u53b3\u3057\u3044\u300d\u8a55\u4fa1\u3092\u3057\u3064\u3064\u3001\u5143\u306e\u5358\u4f4d\u3067\u5831\u544a\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n\t<li>MAE\u3068\u4e26\u3079\u3066\u300c\u5916\u308c\u5024\u306e\u6709\u7121\u300d\u3092\u8a3a\u65ad\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 8fb38178-40c5-4775-bde1-4e709beb82a8 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>7. MAQL\uff08Mean Absolute Quantile Loss\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> \u5404\u5206\u4f4d\u70b9\uff08quantile\uff09\u3054\u3068\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u5e73\u5747\u3057\u305f\u3001\u300c\u5e45\u306e\u3042\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u300d\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u305d\u3082\u305d\u3082\u300cquantile\u4e88\u6e2c\u300d\u3063\u3066\u4f55\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u300c\u660e\u65e5\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u306f100\u500b\u3067\u3059\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30d4\u30f3\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u4e88\u6e2c\uff08\u70b9\u4e88\u6e2c\uff09\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u3001quantile\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u300c\u660e\u65e5\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u306f80\u301c120\u500b\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u306b90%\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u5165\u308a\u307e\u3059\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\uff08\u5e45\uff09\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u3067\u300c\u660e\u65e5\u306e\u6c17\u6e29\u306f15\u2103\u301c25\u2103\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3046\u306e\u3068\u540c\u3058\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>Dataiku\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u8a2d\u5b9a\u753b\u9762\u3067quantile\uff08\u5206\u4f4d\u70b9\uff09\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\u3067\u304d\u3001\u305f\u3068\u3048\u307010%\u70b9\u30fb50%\u70b9\u30fb90%\u70b9\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u51fa\u529b\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>MAQL\u304c\u6e2c\u308b\u3082\u306e<\/b>\r\n<p>\u5404\u5206\u4f4d\u70b9\uff0810%\u300150%\u300190%\u2026\uff09\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u3067\u300c\u5b9f\u7e3e\u3068\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u30ba\u30ec\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3001\u5168quantile\u3092\u5e73\u5747\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u304cMAQL\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u3001quantile loss\u3067\u306f\u300c\u5b9f\u7e3e\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u4e0a\u56de\u3063\u305f\u304b\u4e0b\u56de\u3063\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3067\u91cd\u307f\u304c\u5909\u308f\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u70b9\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u307090%\u70b9\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306a\u3089\u300c\u4e0b\u56de\u3063\u305f\uff08\uff1d\u904e\u5927\u4e88\u6e2c\uff09\u300d\u3068\u304d\u3088\u308a\u300c\u4e0a\u56de\u3063\u305f\uff08\uff1d\u904e\u5c0f\u4e88\u6e2c\uff09\u300d\u3068\u304d\u306e\u30da\u30ca\u30eb\u30c6\u30a3\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>Dataiku\u306e\u96c6\u7d04\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u8907\u6570\u7cfb\u5217\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u300c\u307e\u305a\u5404quantile loss\u3092\u7cfb\u5217\u9593\u3067\u5e73\u5747\u3057\u3001\u6b21\u306bquantile\u9593\u3067\u5e73\u5747\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4e8c\u6bb5\u968e\u96c6\u7d04\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u9700\u8981\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u301c\u6700\u9ad8\u306e\u5e45\u300d\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u3068\u304d\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5e45\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u70b9\u4e88\u6e2c\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3082\u8a55\u4fa1\u306b\u542b\u3081\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: a3133862-26b2-4dfe-b6ec-ea4fd4f45ed5 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>8. MWQL\uff08Mean Weighted Quantile Loss\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> MAQL\u3092\u30bf\u30fc\u30b2\u30c3\u30c8\uff08\u5b9f\u7e3e\u5024\uff09\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u3067\u5272\u3063\u3066\u6b63\u898f\u5316\u3057\u305f\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>MAQL\u3068\u306e\u9055\u3044<\/b>\r\n<p>MAQL\u306f\u7d76\u5bfe\u7684\u306a\u8aa4\u5dee\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u58f2\u4e0a100\u4e07\u306e\u5927\u578b\u5e97\u8217\u3068\u58f2\u4e0a100\u306e\u5c0f\u578b\u5e97\u8217\u3067\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u6570\u5b57\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u304c\u5909\u308f\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3067\u306f\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u306e\u7570\u306a\u308b\u7cfb\u5217\u3092\u516c\u5e73\u306b\u6bd4\u8f03\u3067\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>MWQL\u306fMAQL\u3092\u300c\u5b9f\u7e3e\u5024\u306e\u7d76\u5bfe\u5024\u5408\u8a08\u300d\u3067\u5272\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u30bf\u30fc\u30b2\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u3092\u5438\u53ce\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002Dataiku\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u3082\u3053\u306e\u4e8c\u6bb5\u968e\u96c6\u7d04\u306e\u3046\u3048\u3067\u3055\u3089\u306b\u30bf\u30fc\u30b2\u30c3\u30c8\u7d76\u5bfe\u5024\u5408\u8a08\u3067\u5272\u308b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u304c\u8a18\u8f09\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u5e97\uff1aMAQL = 5\u3001\u58f2\u4e0a\u5408\u8a08 = 100 \u2192 MWQL = 0.05<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u5927\u304d\u3044\u5e97\uff1aMAQL = 500\u3001\u58f2\u4e0a\u5408\u8a08 = 1,000,000 \u2192 MWQL = 0.0005<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u2192 \u5927\u304d\u3044\u5e97\u306e\u65b9\u304c\u5b9f\u306f\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\uff01<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u58f2\u4e0a\u898f\u6a21\u304c\u5168\u304f\u9055\u3046\u5546\u54c1\u7fa4\u306equantile\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u6a2a\u4e26\u3073\u3067\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: d23cdaa8-cc96-47ea-8dad-eddfcf83f849 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>9. MSIS\uff08Mean Scaled Interval Score\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> \u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u300c\u72ed\u3055\u300d\u3068\u300c\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5177\u5408\u300d\u3092\u540c\u6642\u306b\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u826f\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u3068\u306f\uff1f<\/b>\r\n<p>\u300c\u660e\u65e5\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u306f0\u500b\u301c10,000\u500b\u3067\u3059\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u3001\u307b\u307c\u78ba\u5b9f\u306b\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u610f\u5473\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u9006\u306b\u300c\u660e\u65e5\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u306f100\u500b\u301c102\u500b\u3067\u3059\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3063\u3066\u5916\u308c\u305f\u3089\u5927\u554f\u984c\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>MSIS\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e2\u3064\u3092\u540c\u6642\u306b\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u533a\u9593\u304c\u72ed\u3044\u307b\u3069\u826f\u3044\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2<\/strong> \u2192 \u5177\u4f53\u7684\u3067\u4f7f\u3048\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c<\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>\u5b9f\u7e3e\u304c\u533a\u9593\u304b\u3089\u5916\u308c\u305f\u3089\u30da\u30ca\u30eb\u30c6\u30a3\u5927<\/strong> \u2192 \u5916\u3059\u306a\u3089\u899a\u609f\u3057\u308d<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<p>\u3064\u307e\u308a\u300c\u72ed\u304f\u3066\u5f53\u305f\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u300d\u304c\u6700\u9ad8\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u306f\u3001\u5404\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u300c\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5e45\u300d\u3092\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u3001\u5b9f\u7e3e\u304c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5916\u306b\u51fa\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306f\u305d\u306e\u8ddd\u96e2\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u305f\u5927\u304d\u306a\u30da\u30ca\u30eb\u30c6\u30a3\u304c\u52a0\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066MASE\u3068\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u30ca\u30a4\u30fc\u30d6\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u3067\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3055\u308c\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u7570\u306a\u308b\u7cfb\u5217\u9593\u3067\u3082\u6bd4\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u5b89\u5168\u5728\u5eab\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306a\u3069\u300c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u5e45\u300d\u306e\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u304c\u696d\u52d9\u4e0a\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n\t<li>\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u304c\u9069\u5207\u306b\u72ed\u304f\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u30c1\u30a7\u30c3\u30af\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: f8c29b3f-7b6d-4b6e-a270-f0d03ba79860 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>10. ND\uff08Normalized Deviation\uff09<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u8a00\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\uff1a<\/strong> \u5168\u7cfb\u5217\u306e\u7d76\u5bfe\u8aa4\u5dee\u5408\u8a08 \u00f7 \u30bf\u30fc\u30b2\u30c3\u30c8\u7d76\u5bfe\u5024\u5408\u8a08\u3002\u5168\u4f53\u3092\u4e00\u767a\u3067\u300c\u4f55%\u30ba\u30ec\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3067\u898b\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b<\/b>\r\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Dataiku\u3067\u306f\u300c\u5168\u7cfb\u5217\u306e|\u5b9f\u7e3e\u2212\u4e88\u6e2c|\u306e\u5408\u8a08 \u00f7 \u5168\u7cfb\u5217\u306e|\u5b9f\u7e3e|\u306e\u5408\u8a08\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5b9a\u7fa9\u30fb\u96c6\u7d04\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002ND\u304c0.10\u306a\u3089\u3001\u5168\u4f53\u3067\u898b\u308b\u3068\u5b9f\u7e3e\u898f\u6a21\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u306610%\u304f\u3089\u3044\u30ba\u30ec\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002ND\u304c0.05\u306a\u3089\u5168\u4f53\u30675%\u306e\u30ba\u30ec\u30010.20\u306a\u308920%\u306e\u30ba\u30ec\u3068\u3001\u76f4\u611f\u7684\u306b\u8aad\u3081\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>\u3010\u56f3\u89e3\uff1a\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u5408\u8a08 \u00f7 \u5b9f\u7e3e\u5408\u8a08 \u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u30d5\u30ed\u30fc \uff0b MAPE\u3068\u306e\u9055\u3044\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3011<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<b>MAPE\u3068\u306e\u9055\u3044<\/b>\r\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">\u4e00\u898b\u4f3c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u7570\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002MAPE\u306f\u5404\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u300c%\u300d\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u304b\u3089\u5168\u4f53\u3092\u5e73\u5747\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u5f0f\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e\u305f\u3081\u30011\u3064\u3067\u3082\u5b9f\u7e3e\u304c0\u306e\u6642\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0d\u80fd\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e00\u65b9ND\u306f\u300c\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u5408\u8a08\u300d\u00f7\u300c\u5b9f\u7e3e\u306e\u5408\u8a08\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5408\u8a08\u540c\u58eb\u306e\u5272\u308a\u7b97\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5408\u8a08\u540c\u58eb\u3067\u5272\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4e00\u90e8\u306b0\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3082\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u306b\u304f\u3044\u306e\u304c\u6700\u5927\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u3053\u3093\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u4f7f\u304a\u3046<\/b>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li>\u8907\u6570\u7cfb\u5217\u3092\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u300c\u5168\u4f53\u3067\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5916\u3057\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3092\u4e00\u3064\u306e\u6570\u5b57\u3067\u5831\u544a\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304d<\/li>\r\n\t<li>MAPE\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u305f\u3044\u304c0\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u3068\u304d\u3001\u4ee3\u66ff\u3068\u3057\u3066<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: cbcb6b7e-d3db-4e3e-993d-40561e12aebe --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u307e\u3068\u3081\uff1a\u7d50\u5c40\u3069\u308c\u3092\u898b\u308c\u3070\u3044\u3044\u306e\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">\u300c\u5168\u90e8\u898b\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u3042\u308b\u306e\uff1f\u300d\u3068\u601d\u3046\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u52d9\u3067\u306f<strong>\u76ee\u7684\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u30662\u301c3\u500b\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u308b<\/strong>\u306e\u304c\u9244\u5247\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\r\n<b>\u57fa\u672c\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\uff08\u8ff7\u3063\u305f\u3089\u307e\u305a\u3053\u308c\uff09<\/b>\r\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal 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notionvc: b1ee3f45-9581-448c-bb91-ca0243393c58 --><\/p>\n\n<h2>\u53c2\u8003\u8cc7\u6599<\/h2>\n<ul>\r\n\t<li><strong>Dataiku\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u300cTime Series Forecasting Results\u300d<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/doc.dataiku.com\/dss\/latest\/machine-learning\/time-series-forecasting\/results.html\">https:\/\/doc.dataiku.com\/dss\/latest\/machine-learning\/time-series-forecasting\/results.html<\/a><\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>Dataiku\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u300cTime Series Forecasting Settings\u300d<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/doc.dataiku.com\/dss\/latest\/machine-learning\/time-series-forecasting\/settings.html\">https:\/\/doc.dataiku.com\/dss\/latest\/machine-learning\/time-series-forecasting\/settings.html<\/a><\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>Hyndman, R.J. and Koehler, A.B. (2006) &#8220;Another look at measures of forecast accuracy&#8221;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/robjhyndman.com\/papers\/another-look-at-measures-of-forecast-accuracy\/\">https:\/\/robjhyndman.com\/papers\/another-look-at-measures-of-forecast-accuracy\/<\/a><\/li>\r\n\t<li><strong>Hyndman, R.J. and Athanasopoulos, G. (2018) &#8220;Forecasting: principles and practice&#8221;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/otexts.com\/fpp2\/\">https:\/\/otexts.com\/fpp2\/<\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><!-- notionvc: 908b67b8-e968-429b-9a49-60d30682a97b --><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dataiku\u3067\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u7d50\u679c\u753b\u9762\u306bMASE\u30fbMAPE\u30fbsMAPE\u30fbMAE\u30fbMSE\u30fbRMSE\u30fbMAQL\u30fbMWQL\u30fbMSIS\u30fbND\u3068\u3044\u304610\u500b\u306e\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30af\u30b9\u304c\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u3059\u3079\u3066\u3092\u300c\u4e00\u8a00 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":7118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","swell_btn_cv_data":"","footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[1246],"tags":[199,1241,484],"class_list":["post-7794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-data-infrastructure","tag-dataiku","tag-metrics","tag-484"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7794"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7811,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7794\/revisions\/7811"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}