{"id":9997,"date":"2026-10-06T15:50:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T06:50:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/?p=9997"},"modified":"2026-10-06T15:50:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T06:50:30","slug":"conformal-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/conformal-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"AI\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u300c\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3064\u304d\u306e\u5e45\u300d\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u2500\u2500Conformal\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u306f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30ed\u30c0\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6a5f\u68b0\u5b66\u7fd2\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3044\u3066\u3044\u300c\u6765\u6708\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u306f100\u4e07\u5186\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b1\u3064\u306e\u5024\uff08\u70b9\u4e88\u6e2c\uff09\u3067\u7b54\u3048\u3092\u8fd4\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u5b9f\u52d9\u3067\u672c\u5f53\u306b\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3001\u300c\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5916\u308c\u3046\u308b\u306e\u304b\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u5728\u5eab\u306e\u767a\u6ce8\u91cf\u3092\u6c7a\u3081\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3082\u3001\u533b\u7642\u3067\u4e88\u5f8c\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3082\u3001\u300c80\u301c120\u4e07\u5186\u306e\u9593\u306b\u5165\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u5e45\u306e\u3042\u308b\u7b54\u3048\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u4f7f\u3044\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u5e45\u3092\u51fa\u3059\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306b\u306f\u3001\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u5f93\u3046\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7d44\u3080\u3082\u306e\u3001\u8907\u6570\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3082\u306e\u306a\u3069\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3044\u305a\u308c\u3082\u3001\u7f6e\u3044\u305f\u4eee\u5b9a\u3084\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u305d\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306b\u4fdd\u8a3c\u304c\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conformal\u4e88\u6e2c\uff08Conformal Prediction\uff09\u306f\u6a5f\u68b0\u5b66\u7fd2\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u8a55\u4fa1\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6ce8\u76ee\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u6b21\u306e3\u3064\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u3092\u6301\u3064\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u306a\u3044\uff1a<\/strong>\u00a0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u30d5\u30a9\u30ec\u30b9\u30c8\u3067\u3082\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e9\u30eb\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u3067\u3082\u3001\u5b66\u7fd2\u6e08\u307f\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4e00\u5207\u3044\u3058\u3089\u305a\u306b\u3001\u5916\u5074\u304b\u3089\u533a\u9593\u3092\u4f5c\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u306a\u3044\uff1a<\/strong>\u00a0\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u5f93\u3046\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u4eee\u5b9a\u304c\u8981\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6709\u9650\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u4fdd\u8a3c\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff1a<\/strong>\u300c\u771f\u306e\u5024\u304c\u533a\u9593\u306b\u5165\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u308290%\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4fdd\u8a3c\u304c\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u6570\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3066\u3082\u6210\u308a\u7acb\u3064\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u3068\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306f\u5225\u7269\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306f\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u300d\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u8868\u3059\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u306f\u300c\u6b21\u306b\u89b3\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u308b1\u4ef6\u306e\u5024\u300d\u304c\u3069\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u306b\u5165\u308b\u304b\u3092\u8868\u3059\u3002\u5f8c\u8005\u306f\u500b\u3005\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u81ea\u4f53\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u3082\u542b\u3080\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u306b\u5e83\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3002Conformal\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u4f5c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u57fa\u672c\u306e\u30a2\u30a4\u30c7\u30a2\uff1a\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30ba\u30ec\u304b\u3089\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5e45\u3092\u6c7a\u3081\u308b<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u767a\u60f3\u306f\u3068\u3066\u3082\u7d20\u6734\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u300c\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5916\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3092\u8abf\u3079\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5916\u308c\u5177\u5408\u306e\u5b9f\u7e3e\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5e45\u306b\u4f7f\u3046\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e9\u5272\u306f\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c12\u4e07\u5186\u4ee5\u5185\u306b\u53ce\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u306a\u3089\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u3082\u300c\u00b112\u4e07\u5186\u300d\u306e\u533a\u9593\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308c\u3070\u30019\u5272\u304f\u3089\u3044\u306f\u5f53\u305f\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u300c\u5916\u308c\u5177\u5408\u300d\u3092\u6570\u5024\u306b\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3092<strong>\u975e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\uff08nonconformity score\uff09<\/strong>\u3068\u547c\u3076\u3002\u56de\u5e30\u3067\u6700\u3082\u3088\u304f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u5dee\u306e\u7d76\u5bfe\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>$$<br>s_i = |y_i &#8211; \\hat{f}(x_i)|<br>$$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u307b\u3069\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u98df\u3044\u9055\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u300c\u610f\u5916\u306a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff09\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8868\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Split Conformal\u306e\u624b\u9806<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u3082\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306a\u5b9f\u88c5\u304c<strong>Split Conformal<\/strong>\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30922\u3064\u306b\u5206\u3051\u3001\u7247\u65b9\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b66\u7fd2\u3057\u3001\u3082\u3046\u7247\u65b9\uff08\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff09\u3067\u5916\u308c\u5177\u5408\u3092\u6e2c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"974\" height=\"592\" src=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9999\" srcset=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png 974w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8-768x467.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 974px) 100vw, 974px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56f31: \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b66\u7fd2\uff08\u7d2b\uff09\u3068\u30ba\u30ec\u306e\u6e2c\u5b9a\uff08\u7dd1\uff09\u3092\u5225\u3005\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u884c\u3044\u3001\u305d\u3053\u304b\u3089\u6c42\u3081\u305f\u5206\u4f4d\u70b9 $\\hat{q}$\uff08\u9ec4\uff09\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u524d\u5f8c\u306b\u8db3\u3057\u5f15\u304d\u3057\u3066\u533a\u9593\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u624b\u9806\u3092\u5f0f\u3067\u66f8\u304f\u3068\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u4ef6\u6570\u3092 $n$\u3001\u6b32\u3057\u3044\u88ab\u8986\u7387\u3092 $1-\\alpha$\uff08\u4f8b\uff1a$\\alpha = 0.1$ \u306a\u308990%\uff09\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5b66\u7fd2\u7528\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb $\\hat{f}$ \u3092\u5b66\u7fd2\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u306e\u5404\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2 $s_i = |y_i &#8211; \\hat{f}(x_i)|$ \u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$n$ \u500b\u306e\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3001\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u65b9\u304b\u3089 $k = \\lceil (n+1)(1-\\alpha) \\rceil$ \u756a\u76ee\u306e\u5024\u3092 $\\hat{q}$ \u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u5165\u529b $x$ \u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u3092\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5b9a\u3081\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>$$<br>C(x) = \\left[ \\hat{f}(x) &#8211; \\hat{q},\\ \\hat{f}(x) + \\hat{q} \\right]<br>$$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c19\u4ef6\u300190%\u306e\u533a\u9593\u304c\u6b32\u3057\u3044\uff08$\\alpha = 0.1$\uff09\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002$k = \\lceil (19+1) \\times 0.9 \\rceil = 18$ \u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\uff08\u5358\u4f4d\uff1a\u4e07\u5186\uff09\u3092\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u9806\u306b\u4e26\u3079\u3066<strong>18\u756a\u76ee<\/strong>\u306e\u5024\u3092\u53d6\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 10, 11,&nbsp;<strong>12<\/strong>, 15<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>18\u756a\u76ee\u306f12\u306a\u306e\u3067&nbsp;$\\hat{q} = 12$ \u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c100\u4e07\u5186\u306a\u3089\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\u306f $[88,\\ 112]$ \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5b9f\u88c5\u4f8b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Split Conformal\u306f\u6570\u884c\u3067\u66f8\u3051\u308b\u3002\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u4f55\u3067\u3082\u3088\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>import numpy as np\nfrom sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor\nfrom sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n\n# 1. \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5b66\u7fd2\u7528\u3068\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u306b\u5206\u3051\u308b\nX_tr, X_cal, y_tr, y_cal = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.5, random_state=0)\n\n# 2. \u4efb\u610f\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b66\u7fd2\u3059\u308b\nmodel = RandomForestRegressor().fit(X_tr, y_tr)\n\n# 3. \u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u975e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\nscores = np.abs(y_cal - model.predict(X_cal))\n\n# 4. \u5206\u4f4d\u70b9 q_hat \u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\uff08alpha=0.1 \u306a\u308990%\u533a\u9593\uff09\nalpha = 0.1\nn = len(scores)\nk = int(np.ceil((n + 1) * (1 - alpha)))\n# k \u304c n \u3092\u8d85\u3048\u308b\u5834\u5408\uff08n \u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3059\u304e\u308b\u5834\u5408\uff09\u306f q_hat = \u7121\u9650\u5927\uff08\u533a\u9593\u306f\u7121\u9650\u5e45\uff09\nq_hat = np.sort(scores)&#091;k - 1]\n\n# 5. \u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\npred = model.predict(X_new)\nlower, upper = pred - q_hat, pred + q_hat\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u306a\u305c\u4fdd\u8a3c\u304c\u6210\u308a\u7acb\u3064\u306e\u304b<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u306a\u305c\u300c\u771f\u306e\u5024\u304c\u533a\u9593\u306b\u5165\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u3082 1\u2212\u03b1\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3002\u9375\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u306f<strong>\u4ea4\u63db\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff08exchangeability\uff09<\/strong>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6027\u8cea\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u4e26\u3073\u9806\u3092\u5165\u308c\u66ff\u3048\u3066\u3082\u540c\u6642\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u5909\u308f\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u6307\u3057\u3001i.i.d.\uff08\u72ec\u7acb\u540c\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u6e80\u305f\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2 $s_{n+1}$ \u3068\u3001\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u306e $n$ \u500b\u306e\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u3092\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f $n+1$ \u500b\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306f\u4ea4\u63db\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001$s_{n+1}$ \u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u65b9\u304b\u3089\u4f55\u756a\u76ee\u306b\u6765\u308b\u304b\u306f\u3001\u3069\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u3082\u540c\u3058\u78ba\u7387 $1\/(n+1)$ \u306b\u306a\u308b\uff08\u540c\u3058\u5024\u304c\u51fa\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3059\u308b\uff09\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001$s_{n+1}$ \u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u65b9\u304b\u3089 $k$ \u756a\u76ee\u4ee5\u5185\u306b\u5165\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f $k\/(n+1)$ \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067 $k = \\lceil (n+1)(1-\\alpha) \\rceil$ \u3068\u9078\u3093\u3067\u304a\u3051\u3070\u3001$k\/(n+1) \\geq 1-\\alpha$ \u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u300c$s_{n+1}$ \u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u65b9\u304b\u3089 $k$ \u756a\u76ee\u4ee5\u5185\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u300c$s_{n+1} \\leq \\hat{q}$\u300d\u3068\u540c\u3058\u610f\u5473\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u307e\u3055\u306b\u300c\u771f\u306e\u5024 $y_{n+1}$ \u304c\u533a\u9593 $\\left[ \\hat{f}(x_{n+1}) &#8211; \\hat{q},\\, \\hat{f}(x_{n+1}) + \\hat{q} \\right]$ \u306b\u5165\u308b\u300d\u3053\u3068\u3068\u540c\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>$$<br>1 &#8211; \\alpha \\leq P\\left( Y_{n+1} \\in C(X_{n+1}) \\right) \\leq 1 &#8211; \\alpha + \\frac{1}{n+1}<br>$$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53f3\u5074\u306e\u4e0d\u7b49\u5f0f\uff08\u4e0a\u9650\uff09\u306f\u3001\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u306b\u540c\u3058\u5024\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u304d\u306b\u6210\u308a\u7acb\u3064\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u88ab\u8986\u7387\u306f\u3001\u76ee\u6a19\u306e 1\u2212\u03b1 \u3092\u4e0b\u56de\u3089\u305a\u3001\u304b\u3064\u5927\u304d\u304f\u4e0a\u56de\u308a\u3059\u304e\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5f0f\u306e\u4e2d\u306b $n$ \u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f $n+1$ \u304c\u73fe\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u81ea\u8eab\u3082\u9806\u4f4d\u3065\u3051\u306e\u5bfe\u8c61\u306b\u542b\u3081\u3066\u6570\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u306a\u304a\u3001\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u3059\u304e\u308b\u3068\u3001$(1-\\alpha)$ \u306b\u898b\u5408\u3046\u9806\u4f4d $k$ \u304c $n$ \u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u3001\u533a\u9593\u304c\u7121\u9650\u5e45\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u307e\u305f\u4ef6\u6570\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u3044\u307b\u3069\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u88ab\u8986\u7387\u304c\u76ee\u6a19\u5024\u306e\u5468\u308a\u3067\u5927\u304d\u304f\u30d6\u30ec\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4fdd\u8a3c\u306e\u9650\u754c\uff1a\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u306b\u306f\u5f53\u305f\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3069\u3053\u3067\u3082\u5f53\u305f\u308b\u3068\u306f\u9650\u3089\u306a\u3044<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067\u306e\u4fdd\u8a3c\u306f<strong>\u5468\u8fba\u30ab\u30d0\u30ec\u30c3\u30b8\uff08marginal coverage\uff09<\/strong>\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u300c\u3042\u3089\u3086\u308b $x$ \u3092\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u5e73\u5747\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b90%\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u300c\u3053\u306e\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306b\u3064\u3044\u306690%\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3001$x$ \u3054\u3068\u306e\u6761\u4ef6\u4ed8\u304d\u306e\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u70b9\u306b\u6ce8\u610f\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001$x$ \u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u307b\u3069\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5e45\u304c $x$ \u306b\u3088\u3089\u305a\u4e00\u5b9a\u3060\u3068\u3001\u5168\u4f53\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f9\u5272\u8fd1\u304f\u3092\u8986\u3048\u3066\u3082\u3001\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u306e\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u9818\u57df\u3067\u306f\u5fc5\u8981\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306b\u5e83\u304f\u3001\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3044\u9818\u57df\u3067\u306f\u5916\u308c\u304c\u96c6\u4e2d\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"964\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10000\" srcset=\"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-9.png 964w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-9-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-9-768x438.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 964px) 100vw, 964px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56f32: \u5de6\u306f\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u7d049\u5272\uff0813\u70b9\u4e2d12\u70b9\uff09\u3092\u8986\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5916\u308c\u305f\u70b9\uff08\u8d64\uff09\u306f\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3044\u53f3\u5074\u306b\u96c6\u4e2d\u3057\u3001\u5de6\u5074\u3067\u306f\u5fc5\u8981\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306b\u5e83\u3044\u3002\u53f3\u306f\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5e45\u3092x\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u5909\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u3069\u306e\u9818\u57df\u3067\u3082\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306b\u8986\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3078\u306e\u5bfe\u51e6\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5e45\u3092 x \u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u5909\u3048\u308b\u5de5\u592b\u304c\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u306e\u306f\u3001\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024 $\\hat{\\sigma}(x)$ \u3067\u5272\u3063\u3066\u6b63\u898f\u5316\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3084\u3001\u5206\u4f4d\u70b9\u56de\u5e30\u3068\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f<strong>Conformalized Quantile Regression\uff08CQR\uff09<\/strong>\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u306a\u3044\u9650\u308a\u3001\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e $x$ \u3067\u6761\u4ef6\u4ed8\u304d\u306e\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3092\u53b3\u5bc6\u306b\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u6709\u9650\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u539f\u7406\u7684\u306b\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u306b\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5206\u985e\u3078\u306e\u62e1\u5f35\uff1a\u4e88\u6e2c\u300c\u96c6\u5408\u300d\u3092\u8fd4\u3059<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5206\u985e\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6570\u5024\u306e\u533a\u9593\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f<strong>\u4e88\u6e2c\u96c6\u5408<\/strong>\u3092\u8fd4\u3059\u3002\u975e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u3068\u3057\u3066\u300c\u6b63\u89e3\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u306b\u5272\u308a\u5f53\u3066\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u4f4e\u3044\u307b\u3069\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u308b\u5024\u300d\uff08\u4f8b\u3048\u3070 $1 &#8211; \\hat{p}(y|x)$\uff09\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u3001\u56de\u5e30\u3068\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u5206\u4f4d\u70b9 $\\hat{q}$ \u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u3002\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u306f\u3001\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u304c $\\hat{q}$ \u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u306a\u308b\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u3092\u3059\u3079\u3066\u96c6\u5408\u306b\u542b\u3081\u3066\u8fd4\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u753b\u50cf\u5206\u985e\u3067\u300c{\u732b, \u72ac}\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8907\u6570\u5019\u88dc\u304c\u8fd4\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u81ea\u4fe1\u3092\u6301\u3066\u306a\u3044\u5165\u529b\u3067\u306f\u96c6\u5408\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u308a\u3001\u81ea\u4fe1\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5165\u529b\u3067\u306f1\u3064\u306e\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u3060\u3051\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u300c\u6b63\u89e3\u304c\u3053\u306e\u96c6\u5408\u306b\u5165\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f90%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3064\u304d\u3067\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8ff7\u3044\u3092\u8868\u73fe\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4ea4\u63db\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u5d29\u308c\u308b\u3068\u304d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4fdd\u8a3c\u306e\u524d\u63d0\u3067\u3042\u308b\u4ea4\u63db\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u306f\u5d29\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5171\u5909\u91cf\u30b7\u30d5\u30c8\uff1a<\/strong>\u00a0\u5b66\u7fd2\u30fb\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u6642\u3068\u904b\u7528\u6642\u3067\u3001x \u306e\u5206\u5e03\u304c\u7570\u306a\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3002\u5c24\u5ea6\u6bd4\u3067\u5404\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u91cd\u307f\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b<strong>\u91cd\u307f\u4ed8\u304dConformal\u4e88\u6e2c<\/strong>\u304c\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\uff1a<\/strong>\u00a0\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u6642\u9593\u7684\u306a\u4f9d\u5b58\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u9806\u5e8f\u3092\u5165\u308c\u66ff\u3048\u3089\u308c\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3002\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u88ab\u8986\u7387\u3092\u898b\u306a\u304c\u3089\u76ee\u6a19\u306e $\\alpha$ \u3092\u9010\u6b21\u8abf\u6574\u3059\u308b<strong>Adaptive Conformal Inference<\/strong>\u306a\u3069\u304c\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5b9f\u88c5<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Python\u3067\u306f<strong>MAPIE<\/strong>\uff08scikit-learn-contrib\u306e\u4e00\u3064\uff09\u304c\u5e83\u304f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002scikit-learn\u4e92\u63db\u306eAPI\u3067\u3001\u56de\u5e30\u30fb\u5206\u985e\u30fb\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001PyTorch\u3084TensorFlow\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3082\u30e9\u30c3\u30d1\u30fc\u7d4c\u7531\u3067\u4f7f\u3048\u308b\u3002MAPIE\u306fv1\u3067API\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5909\u66f4\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4f7f\u3046\u3068\u304d\u306f\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u3054\u3068\u306e\u66f8\u304d\u65b9\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u5b89\u5168\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Conformal\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u3001\u5b66\u7fd2\u6e08\u307f\u306e\u3069\u3093\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3082\u5f8c\u4ed8\u3051\u3067\u3001\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4eee\u5b9a\u305b\u305a\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u533a\u9593\uff08\u307e\u305f\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u96c6\u5408\uff09\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7528\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u6e2c\u3063\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u5916\u308c\u5177\u5408\uff08\u975e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\uff09\u306e\u5206\u4f4d\u70b9\u3092\u3001\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5e45\u306b\u4f7f\u3046\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ea4\u63db\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306e\u3082\u3068\u3067\u3001\u6709\u9650\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u3082\u300c\u771f\u306e\u5024\u304c\u533a\u9593\u306b\u5165\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f 1\u2212\u03b1 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u300d\u304c\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5168\u4f53\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5e73\u5747\u3057\u305f\u88ab\u8986\u7387\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001$x$ \u3054\u3068\u306e\u6761\u4ef6\u4ed8\u304d\u306e\u88ab\u8986\u7387\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5e45\u3092 x \u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u5909\u3048\u308b\u5de5\u592b\uff08CQR\u306a\u3069\uff09\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u306a\u308b\u5834\u9762\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ea4\u63db\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u5d29\u308c\u308b\u5834\u9762\uff08\u5171\u5909\u91cf\u30b7\u30d5\u30c8\u3001\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\uff09\u306b\u306f\u3001\u91cd\u307f\u4ed8\u304dConformal\u3084Adaptive Conformal Inference\u306a\u3069\u306e\u62e1\u5f35\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u30ed\u30c0\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3 \u6a5f\u68b0\u5b66\u7fd2\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3044\u3066\u3044\u300c\u6765\u6708\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u306f100\u4e07\u5186\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b1\u3064\u306e\u5024\uff08\u70b9\u4e88\u6e2c\uff09\u3067\u7b54\u3048\u3092\u8fd4\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u5b9f\u52d9\u3067\u672c\u5f53\u306b\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3001\u300c\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5916\u308c\u3046\u308b\u306e\u304b\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u5728\u5eab\u306e\u767a\u6ce8\u91cf\u3092\u6c7a\u3081\u308b\u3068\u304d\u3082\u3001\u533b\u7642 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":77,"featured_media":10002,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","swell_btn_cv_data":"","footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[1251],"tags":[96,39,33,419],"class_list":["post-9997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-data-analysis","tag-ai","tag-39","tag-33","tag-419"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/77"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9997"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9997\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10003,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9997\/revisions\/10003"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/since2020.jp\/media\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}